In this infographic, we’ve visualized data from the Fed’s most recent consumer debt update.
Aggressive Borrowing
The first chart in this graphic shows the growth in outstanding car loans between Q2 2020 (start of the pandemic) to Q4 2022 (latest available). We can see that Americans under the age of 40 have grown their vehicle-related debt the most. It’s natural for Gen Z (ages 11-26) to have higher growth figures because many of them are buying their first car, but 31% is quite high relatively speaking. Part of this can be attributed to today’s inflationary environment, which has pushed used car prices to new highs. Supply chain issues have also resulted in over 30% of new cars being sold above MSRP. Because of these rising prices, the Fed reports that the average auto loan is now $24,000, up 41% from 2019’s value of $17,000.
Spiking Delinquencies
Interest rates on auto loans are typically fixed, meaning many young Americans were able to take advantage of the low rates seen during the pandemic. Despite this, one in five Gen Zs say that their car payments account for over 20% of their after-tax income. Shown in the second chart of this infographic, the amount of auto debt transitioning into serious delinquency is much higher for Gen Z and Millennials. Throughout 2022, these generations saw $20 billion in auto debt fall 90+ days behind. The outlook for these struggling borrowers is bleak. First there’s inflation, which has pushed up the prices of most consumer goods. This eats into their ability to make car payments. Second is rising interest rates, which make credit card debt—another pain point for young borrowers—even more costly. Finally, there’s student loans, which are expected to resume in summer 2023. Payments on student debt have been suspended since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. on The scale of hidden dollar debt around the world is huge. No less than $65 trillion in unrecorded dollar debt circulates across the global financial system in non-U.S. banks and shadow banks. To put in perspective, global GDP sits at $104 trillion. This dollar debt is in the form of foreign-exchange swaps, which have exploded over the last decade due to years of monetary easing and ultra-low interest rates, as investors searched for higher yields. Today, unrecorded debt from these foreign-exchange swaps is worth more than double the dollar debt officially recorded on balance sheets across these institutions. Based on analysis from the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), the above infographic charts the rise in hidden dollar debt across non-U.S. financial institutions and examines the wider implications of its growth.
Dollar Debt: A Beginners Guide
To start, we will briefly look at the role of foreign-exchange (forex) swaps in the global economy. The forex market is the largest in the world by a long stretch, with trillions traded daily. Some of the key players that use foreign-exchange swaps are:
Corporations Financial institutions Central banks
To understand forex swaps is to look at the role of currency risk. As we have seen in 2022, the U.S. dollar has been on a tear. When this happens, it hurts company earnings that generate revenue across borders. That’s because they earn revenue in foreign currencies (which have likely declined in value against the dollar) but end up converting earnings to U.S. dollars. In order to reduce currency risk, market participants will buy forex swaps. Here, two parties agree to exchange one currency for another. In short, this helps protect the company from unfavorable foreign exchange rates. What’s more, due to accounting rules, forex swaps are often unrecorded on balance sheets, and as a result are quite opaque.
A Mountain of Debt
Since 2008, the value of this opaque, unrecorded dollar debt has nearly doubled.
*As of June 30, 2022
Driving its rise in part was an era of rock-bottom interest rates globally. As investors sought out higher returns, they took on greater leverage—and forex swaps are one example of this.
Now, as interest rates have been rising, forex swaps have increased amid higher market volatility as investors look to hedge currency risk. This appears in both non-U.S. banks and non-U.S. shadow banks, which are unregulated financial intermediaries.
Overall, the value of unrecorded debt is staggering. An estimated $39 trillion is held by non-U.S. banks along with $26 trillion in overseas shadow banks around the world.
Past Case Studies
Why does the massive growth in dollar debt present risks? During the market crashes of 2008 and 2020, forex swaps faced a funding squeeze. To borrow U.S. dollars, market participants had to pay high rates. A lot of this hinged on the impact of extreme volatility on these swaps, putting pressure on funding rates. Here are two examples of how volatility can heighten risk in the forex market:
Exchange-rate volatility: Sharp swings in USD can spur a liquidity crunch U.S. interest-rate volatility: Sudden rate fluctuations can mean much higher costs for these trades
In both cases, the U.S. central bank had to step in to provide liquidity in the market and prevent dollar shortages. This was done through pumping cash into the system and creating swap lines with other non-U.S. banks such as the Bank of Canada or the Bank of Japan. These were designed to protect from declining currency values and a liquidity crunch.
Dollar Debt: The Wider Implications
The risk from growing dollar debt and these swap lines arises when a non-U.S. bank or shadow bank may not be able to hold up their end of the agreement. In fact, on a daily basis, there is an estimated $2.2 trillion in forex swaps exposed to settlement risk. Given its vast scale, this dollar debt could have greater systemic spillover effects. If participants fail to pay it could undermine financial market stability. Because demand for U.S. dollars increases during market uncertainty, a worsening economic climate could potentially expose the forex market to more vulnerabilities.
