But fast forward to the end of last week, and SVB was shuttered by regulators after a panic-induced bank run. So, how exactly did this happen? We dig in below.
Road to a Bank Run
SVB and its customers generally thrived during the low interest rate era, but as rates rose, SVB found itself more exposed to risk than a typical bank. Even so, at the end of 2022, the bank’s balance sheet showed no cause for alarm.
As well, the bank was viewed positively in a number of places. Most Wall Street analyst ratings were overwhelmingly positive on the bank’s stock, and Forbes had just added the bank to its Financial All-Stars list. Outward signs of trouble emerged on Wednesday, March 8th, when SVB surprised investors with news that the bank needed to raise more than $2 billion to shore up its balance sheet. The reaction from prominent venture capitalists was not positive, with Coatue Management, Union Square Ventures, and Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund moving to limit exposure to the 40-year-old bank. The influence of these firms is believed to have added fuel to the fire, and a bank run ensued. Also influencing decision making was the fact that SVB had the highest percentage of uninsured domestic deposits of all big banks. These totaled nearly $152 billion, or about 97% of all deposits. By the end of the day, customers had tried to withdraw $42 billion in deposits.
What Triggered the SVB Collapse?
While the collapse of SVB took place over the course of 44 hours, its roots trace back to the early pandemic years. In 2021, U.S. venture capital-backed companies raised a record $330 billion—double the amount seen in 2020. At the time, interest rates were at rock-bottom levels to help buoy the economy. Matt Levine sums up the situation well: “When interest rates are low everywhere, a dollar in 20 years is about as good as a dollar today, so a startup whose business model is “we will lose money for a decade building artificial intelligence, and then rake in lots of money in the far future” sounds pretty good. When interest rates are higher, a dollar today is better than a dollar tomorrow, so investors want cash flows. When interest rates were low for a long time, and suddenly become high, all the money that was rushing to your customers is suddenly cut off.” Source: Pitchbook Why is this important? During this time, SVB received billions of dollars from these venture-backed clients. In one year alone, their deposits increased 100%. They took these funds and invested them in longer-term bonds. As a result, this created a dangerous trap as the company expected rates would remain low. During this time, SVB invested in bonds at the top of the market. As interest rates rose higher and bond prices declined, SVB started taking major losses on their long-term bond holdings.
Losses Fueling a Liquidity Crunch
When SVB reported its fourth quarter results in early 2023, Moody’s Investor Service, a credit rating agency took notice. In early March, it said that SVB was at high risk for a downgrade due to its significant unrealized losses. In response, SVB looked to sell $2 billion of its investments at a loss to help boost liquidity for its struggling balance sheet. Soon, more hedge funds and venture investors realized SVB could be on thin ice. Depositors withdrew funds in droves, spurring a liquidity squeeze and prompting California regulators and the FDIC to step in and shut down the bank.
What Happens Now?
While much of SVB’s activity was focused on the tech sector, the bank’s shocking collapse has rattled a financial sector that is already on edge.
The four biggest U.S. banks lost a combined $52 billion the day before the SVB collapse. On Friday, other banking stocks saw double-digit drops, including Signature Bank (-23%), First Republic (-15%), and Silvergate Capital (-11%).
Source: Morningstar Direct. *Represents March 9 data, trading halted on March 10.
When the dust settles, it’s hard to predict the ripple effects that will emerge from this dramatic event. For investors, the Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen announced confidence in the banking system remaining resilient, noting that regulators have the proper tools in response to the issue.
But others have seen trouble brewing as far back as 2020 (or earlier) when commercial banking assets were skyrocketing and banks were buying bonds when rates were low.
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For a modern example, we can see how different countries (and regions) act when it comes to cryptocurrency. Within the European Union—one of the regions dealing with faster crypto adoption—attitudes towards investing can vary considerably.
This graphic from Gilbert Fontana looks at crypto popularity amongst investors in the EU using data from the European Commission’s Eurobarometer. It compares exposure to cryptocurrencies relative to stocks, funds, and bonds.
Crypto Popularity in Europe in 2022
Given that crypto has experienced bubble-like asset rallies, including a dramatic rise to over a trillion dollars in value before crashing, it’s fair to say it’s well known by now. But even with a vast rise in awareness, there are still discrepancies between the level of investment crypto receives amongst European Union nations. Let’s see which countries have the highest proportion of citizens invested in crypto: Topping the list is Slovenia, considered by some the most crypto-friendly nation in the world. According to the survey, 18% of the country’s population has some sort of investment in it. Cyprus also ranks high in its crypto-friendly rank and hits an investment figure of 13%. Also notable is the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, which despite having a small population of 640,000 also has a strong reputation as a global financial hub. When it comes to crypto, 14% of the population owns or has owned the asset, relative to 36% for stocks, bonds, or funds.
Crypto Unpopularity?
In regards to the countries with lower levels of crypto investment, one observation is that they tend to be wealthier and more developed EU nations. Here’s how the nations at or below the 10% crypto-investment threshold rank: At the “bottom” of crypto interest are France, Germany and Italy, also the EU’s largest economies. At a glance, this might suggest that citizens of stronger economies invest less in crypto. However, it’s important to note that the countries with higher levels of crypto investment tend to have lower levels of wealth on average. Though less of their investors seem to engage in crypto trading, countries like France and Germany might have more comparable levels of crypto investment on a pure dollar-basis.
